Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.
Here’s where things stand with Week 16 of the 2024 season underway:
NFC playoff picture
x – 1. Detroit Lions (12-2), NFC North leaders: After getting stomped by Buffalo on Sunday, they’re now in a three-way tie atop the conference and deadlocked for the division lead following the Vikings’ win Monday night. A Week 7 win over Minnesota and conference record (8-1) that’s one game better than Philly are the tiebreakers currently serving the Lions, who may still need to win out to keep their divisional throne. Remaining schedule: at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings
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x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2), NFC East leaders: Winners of 10 straight, they could not clinch the division following Washington’s victory in New Orleans but can do so by ousting the Commanders on Sunday afternoon. Still, the Iggles did pull even with Detroit, but they’ll need another Lions slip-up to move into the conference’s top spot. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6), NFC South leaders: They embarrassed the Chargers in Week 15, which means – regardless of Atlanta’s triumph Monday night – the Bucs remain atop the division. Seattle’s loss pushed them up a spot, Tampa Bay with a better record (6-3) in conference games than the Rams (5-5). Remaining schedule: at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6), NFC West leaders: Win out, and they are division champs. LA overtook the Seahawks on Sunday night by virtue of their Week 9 victory at Seattle. Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks
x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2), wild card No. 1: They clinched a spot Sunday night thanks to Seattle’s loss. Monday’s victory over Chicago means the Vikes control their own fate in the NFC North – win out, and the division is theirs … and, perhaps, the No. 1 seed, too. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and losing once already to Minnesota pretty much relegates the Pack to wild-card status. Win this Monday, and they lock into the postseason field … unless other circumstances put them in sooner. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears
7. Washington Commanders (9-5), wild card No. 3: They barely survived the Saints, but it was enough to keep them alive one more week in the division with the NFC East still technically up for grabs. With a win and some help, the Commanders can punch their playoff ticket Sunday. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys
8. Seattle Seahawks (8-6), in the hunt: Sunday night’s loss to Green Bay dropped them not only out of the NFC West lead but from the projected field entirely. But, like the Rams, winning out would put Seattle atop the division. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams
9. Atlanta Falcons (7-7), in the hunt: Their four-game losing streak is over after they labored past the Raiders on Monday, though it did necessitate a quarterback change. Catch the Bucs, whom the Dirty Birds swept, and they’re back atop the NFC South. A 6-3 mark in NFC games puts them three games ahead of Arizona as it pertains to that tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers
10. Arizona Cardinals (7-7), in the hunt: They broke a three-game skid by beating the Patriots but, at this point, probably need the NFC West field to come back to them. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers
11. San Francisco 49ers (6-8), in the hunt: The reigning NFC champs have less than a 1% chance to qualify for postseason, per NFL.com. Been that kind of season. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals
12. Dallas Cowboys (6-8), in the hunt: Like the Niners, whom they lost to in Week 8, their postseason hopes are on life support despite Sunday’s win in Charlotte. Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, at Eagles, vs. Commanders
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AFC playoff picture
y – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1), AFC West champions: QB Patrick Mahomes weathered Saturday’s win over Houston, which means K.C. gets the No. 1 seed if Buffalo loses Sunday. One more Chiefs win also guaranteed the AFC’s Super Bowl path will go through Arrowhead. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Broncos
y – 2. Buffalo Bills (11-3), AFC East champions: Sunday’s win in Detroit probably does more for their collective psyche than it really does for their playoff positioning right now. Pittsburgh’s loss makes the Bills’ second-place standing in the conference more comfortable … as does a very inviting closing stretch. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots
x – 3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), AFC North leaders: Rough Saturday. First, They fell out of the running for the No. 1 seed by virtue of Kansas City’s win. Then, Pittsburgh fumbled an opportunity to clinch the division. Looks like they’re in a dogfight the rest of the way with Baltimore, which appears to have the more inviting schedule to close the regular season. The Steelers retain first place in the division – for now – by virtue of a one-game lead over the Ravens in AFC games, i.e., not much at all. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals
y – 4. Houston Texans (9-6), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year but are just about locked in as the fourth seed … which will mean a tough wild-card matchup. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Titans
x – 5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5), wild card No. 1: What a Christmas present. They clinched their postseason spot, averted a Pittsburgh AFC North crown, are now very much alive themselves to win the division … and might have recaptured the Super Bowl form they showed earlier in the season. Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Browns
6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), wild card No. 2: By sweeping the Broncos for the first time in 14 years, they prevented Denver from clinching Thursday while leapfrogging their division rivals and picking up the tiebreaker (by virtue of the sweep). One more win locks Bolts into the field … unless the Colts and Dolphins do it for them by both losing on Sunday afternoon. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, at Raiders
7. Denver Broncos (9-6), wild card No. 3: They had a win-and-in scenario Thursday to stamp their first postseason trip since winning Super Bowl 50 nine years ago. Now, they can’t get in this weekend unless the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals all lose. Still, one more win, and the Broncos advance to the playoffs … though much could be at stake when they head to Cincinnati in Week 17. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Chiefs
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-8), in the hunt: After Week 15’s loss at Denver, it’s basically over. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars
9. Miami Dolphins (6-8), in the hunt: After Week 15’s loss at Houston, it’s basically over. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets
10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8), in the hunt: They won last Sunday, meaning there’s still a faint pulse for a dangerous team many others wouldn’t want to see next month. A 3-6 conference mark keeps them buried behind the Fins and Colts presently. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers
NFL playoff clinching scenarios for Week 16
Kansas City clinches AFC’s No. 1 seed with:
Buffalo loss or tie
Denver clinches playoff berth with:
Miami loss or tie + Cincinnati loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie
Los Angeles Chargers clinch playoff berth with:
Miami loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie
Philadelphia clinches NFC East with:
Win or tie
Green Bay clinches playoff berth with:
Win or tie
Atlanta loss or tie + LA Rams loss or tie
Atlanta loss or tie + Seattle loss or tie
Washington clinches playoff berth with:
Win + Atlanta loss or tie + LA Rams loss or tie
Win + Atlanta loss or tie + Seattle loss or tie
Tie + Atlanta loss + Arizona loss or tie + LA Rams loss or tie + Seattle loss or tie (as long as Rams and Seahawks both don’t tie)
NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2024
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division
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